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BitcoinYield

Methodology

Risk Framework · Version 1.2

How we assess Bitcoin yield products

Every product on BitcoinYield is rated across five pillars: custody and asset control, smart contract and execution risk, yield source and economic sustainability, liquidity and exit dynamics, and transparency and verifiability. Each pillar is scored Green, Yellow, or Red.

Scoring principle
A product is judged by how easily user principal can be impaired, not by how decentralized or elegant it looks on paper.

Custody & Asset Control

Core question

Who controls access to the underlying BTC, and can user principal be withheld, seized, or frozen by a single party?

Green

Trust-Minimized / User-Enforced

Users retain unilateral or protocol-enforced claim to BTC without relying on a single entity’s discretion. Recovery is governed by Bitcoin-native or credibly decentralized rules.

Yellow

Quorum / Qualified Custodian

Recovery depends on an honest quorum, bridge signer set, federation, or regulated custodian rather than direct user control.

Red

Single-Entity Dependency

Recovery depends on one company or legal structure that can freeze access, fail operationally, or leave users structurally exposed in insolvency.

Smart Contract & Execution Risk

Core question

If the code fails or admins intervene, how much user principal can actually be impaired?

Green

Limited Blast Radius

Contracts are immutable or tightly scoped, and a contract failure would not directly allow unilateral loss of core user principal. Operational disruption may still be possible.

Yellow

Admin Guardrails / Contained Control

The protocol is upgradable, pauseable, or still maturing, but admin powers are primarily defensive and do not create clean unilateral control over principal.

Red

Direct Fund Control / Unbounded Blast Radius

A contract exploit or admin action can directly move collateral, rewrite withdrawal rules instantly, or materially impair principal.

Yield Source & Economic Sustainability

Core question

Does the yield come from durable economic activity, or from subsidies, reflexivity, and fragile strategy dependence?

Green

Economically Real / Non-Reflexive

Yield comes from identifiable economic activity and would still exist if token incentives disappeared. The payout may vary with market conditions but is not sustained by emissions.

Yellow

Real Yield, Material Dependencies

Yield is economically real, but a meaningful share depends on active management, basis spreads, counterparties, credit underwriting, market structure, or temporary incentive support.

Red

Reflexive / Fragile

Yield depends primarily on token emissions, undercollateralized credit, aggressive leverage, or structures that weaken when new capital slows or incentives fade.

Liquidity & Exit Dynamics

Core question

How quickly and reliably can a user redeem back to base BTC during stress?

Green

Immediate & Rules-Based

Users can redeem on demand with no protocol-enforced queue, lock, or discretionary gate.

Yellow

Queued / Market-Dependent

Exits are allowed, but require notice, unbonding, cool-down periods, batch processing, or reliance on secondary-market liquidity.

Red

Locked / Discretionary

Exits can be blocked by fixed lockups, manual intervention, legal restrictions, or terms that allow the operator to pause redemptions during stress.

Transparency & Verifiability

Core question

Can I independently verify the assets, liabilities, and yield path with minimal trust and minimal delay?

Green

Continuously Verifiable

A third party can independently verify solvency, backing, and strategy exposure on a continuous or near-real-time basis, either on-chain or via public cryptographic attestations.

Yellow

Delayed / Partial Attestation

Transparency is present but delayed, incomplete, or dependent on a single authorized verifier (e.g., periodic proof-of-reserves, monthly auditor reports, proof of assets without liabilities).

Red

Opaque / Black Box

No cryptographic proof of reserves, hidden wallet addresses or counterparties, omitted liabilities, or a proprietary non-auditable yield engine.

How we score

Every pillar has an objective Pass/Fail check. A product cannot score Green on any pillar unless the supporting evidence is explicit in the research report.

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